Talenore National Assembly elections, 1668
General elections for the National Assembly will be held on 12.XI 1668 for all 380 seats. The number of seats have been reduced from 649 to 380 following the 1665 elections. A five percent national threshold for representation has also been introduced.
Electoral system
340 seats are assigned to the various governorates based on their population. The remaining 40 seats are used to make party representation as proportional as possible. All seats are allocated using the d'Hondt method. To participate in the distribution of seats, a party must get at least five percent of the national vote.
Changes in party support
After the constitutional amendment to reduce the number of seats in the Assembly, the Conservative Party left the Sadrist Alliance. Despite efforts by party leaders to consolidate its base, opinion polls suggest that the party is shedding support primarily to the National Front. Its prospects of making the five percent threshold look increasingly grim. The National Front is at the same time enjoying growing support as a focus point for voters right-of-center that consider the NDP to be too liberal. Polls suggest the NDP is holding steady at just under 45 percent.
On the other side of the political spectrum, the Social Workers' Party seem to be fracturing. Increasing conflicts within the National Assembly party group, with leadership unable to enforce party discipline, suggest a formal breakup may be imminent. As a result, more moderate SWP voters seem to be migrating toward the SDP in polls. After the merger of the Progressive and Green alliances, the combined PUGS seem to struggle to maintain the combined support. Polls suggest the party is experiencing a modest loss of supporters to the SDP, as well as the currently unrepresented Humanist List and Radical Party. Around the middle, polls suggest that the Democratic Rally is close to collapse with voters fleeing to primarily the Liberal Party and the newly formed Republican Party. Bright Dawn on the right wing is enjoying growing support, but from its very meager beginnings.
Current polls
According to the current polls, the Sadrist Alliance consisting of the NDP and NF would win an outright majority of around 30 seats. Either party would have to collapse and lose around five percentage points of support to lose the election.
| Party | Average support | Change |
|---|---|---|
| National Development Party | 44% | |
| Social Democratic Party | 16% | |
| National Front | 9.5% | +2% |
| Progressive Union-Green Society | 9% | -5% |
| Liberal Party | 7.5% | +1.5% |
| Socialist Workers' Party | 5% | -1.5% |
| Humanist List | 3.5% | NEW |
| Conservative Party | 1% | -2.5% |
| Democratic Rally | 1% | -2% |
| Bright Dawn | 1% | +0.5% |
| Republican Party | 0.5% | NEW |
| Radical Party | 0.5% | NEW |
| Communist Party of Talenore | 0.5% | NEW |
| Others | 1% |
Results
| Party | Votes 1665 | Share 1665 | Seats 1665 | Votes 1668 | Share 1668 | Seats 1668 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National Development Party | 9,728,852 | 43.70% | 296 | 9,824,988 | 43.80% | 187 |
| Social Democratic Party | 3,542,231 | 15.91% | 118 | 3,491,653 | 15.56% | 65 |
| Progressive Union-Green Society | 2,685,332 | 12.06% | 70 | 2,118,556 | 9.44% | 40 |
| National Front | 1,666,558 | 7.49% | 48 | 2,026,696 | 9.03% | 38 |
| Liberal Party | 1,311,349 | 5.89% | 37 | 1,567,433 | 6.99% | 29 |
| Humanist List | 1,127,171 | 5.02% | 21 | |||
| Socialist Workers' Party | 1,467,974 | 6.59% | 45 | 1,086,285 | 4.84% | 0 |
| Conservative Party | 787,113 | 3.54% | 19 | 379,694 | 1.69% | 0 |
| Democratic Rally | 675,417 | 3.03% | 14 | 331,053 | 1.48% | 0 |
| Bright Dawn | 122,827 | 0.55% | 2 | 183,986 | 0.82% | 0 |
| Others | 277,179 | 1.24% | 0 | 295,813 | 1.32% | 0 |
