Syrelwynn Prophecy Exchange

[Yvain Wintersong]

Owner: Yvain Wintersong
Name: Syrelwynn Prophecy Exchange
Purpose: Issue-based gambling, prediction of the future
Location: Syrelwynn

The Syrelwynn Prophecy Exchange is a prediction market like the real-world InTrade. I offer bets on important political events, and calculate from which people take which bets how likely those events are to occur.

For example, InTrade has a bet on who will win the American presidential election - McCain or Obama. Thousands of Americans and others who think they know about politics place money on one candidate or the other. Then InTrade averages up all of those bets and comes up with the odds of each candidate winning the election. Because people must place money on their prediction, and will place more money the more confident they are, they are a lot less likely to just sound off without any real information. Right now, InTrade gives 62% odds of an Obama victory.

My math isn't going to be nearly as hard (or as accurate) as InTrade's, but other than that, it will work the same way. You'll place bets on important political events. Those of you who are right will win money. Those of you who are wrong will lose money. And either way, the market will use your bets to issue prophecies about the future.

I will occasionally start markets for a certain issue, and anyone who is interested in a certain market may contact me to get one set up as long as they promise to bet at least 10 erb.

[Yvain Wintersong]

Let's start with one market: who will be the next Kaiser?

You play by making a bet on a person you think will be the next Kaiser. So you might say "I bet 10 erb on Benkern".

Then we wait a while, until there's a new Kaiser. If you're wrong, you lose your money. If you're right, you win all the money bet (minus my fee) in the prediction market, divided by the number of correct people in proportion to the amount bet. For example, consider the following market:

Khan of Vijayanagara for Kaiser: (2 bets: 10 and 15 erb)
Erik Mortis Brookshire for Kaiser: (1 bet: 20 erb)
Benkern for Kaiser: (2 bets: 40 erb and 10 erb)
Ari Rahikkala for Kaiser: (1 bet: 5 erb)

There are 100 erb total in the market. I take a fee of 20%. Now there's 80 erb total. Let's say Erik becomes Kaiser. The one guy who bet on Erik gets 80 erb.

Let's say Benkern becomes Kaiser. The guy who bet 40 gets 4 times as big a share of the winnings as the guy who bet 10. The first guy ends up with 64 erb, the second guy with 16.

Let's say Kaiser Ayreon is resigning tomorrow. In this market, since total erb equals 100, the number of erb on each candidate is the chance (if Shirerothians place bets based on who they predict will win, and if their predictions are as a whole accurate) that each candidate will win the Kaisership. So in this market, it looks like Benkern as a 50% chance, the Khan a 25% chance, Erik a 20% chance, and Ari a 5% chance.

Note that betting on a candidate with a high chance of winning gives you better odds to win, but makes you less likely to get a high payoff. Betting on a candidate with a low chance of winning (who no one else has bet on) gives you low odds but a great payoff. For example, in this situation, if I bet on Andreas (whom no one has bet on yet), I could bet only 1 erb, and I would win 80 erb if he became Kaiser.

Make a bet by posting the bet here and transferring the erb to my account (if you don't want your bet to be public, you can PM me, but really posting it here is easier). The market will stay open until a winner becomes clear.

Rules and regulations: "The next Kaiser as Shireroth" is defined as the designated heir of Kaiser Ayreon, or, if Ayreon's choice of heir plunges Shireroth into civil war, the first person to get the support of all five Duchies and retain it for at least three days. In cases where the winner is still unclear, Syrelwynn Prophecy Exchanges makes the final decision If no one chooses the correct Kaiser, or if something completely unexpected happens such as Shireroth becoming a republic or Ayreon proclaiming himself Kaiser-for-life, Syrelwynn Prophecy Exchange reserves the right to give no payout. Any party with inside information such as Kaiser Ayreon himself or any advisor with whom Kaiser Ayreon has privately discussed the succession is forbidden from using the Syrelwynn Prophecy Exchange. For the sake of fairness, Brrapa Lu Eraro is also prohibited from using the Syrelwynn Prophecy Exchange. Syrelwynn Prophecy Exchange reserves the right to change these conditions for any reason. All conflicts between Syrelwynn prophecy exchanges and a customer may be appealed to the Judex of Shireroth whose decision will be final.

[Andreas the Wise]

And there was me thinking this thread sounded like something useful for my Game ....

Yvain, you've managed to combine an application with the company thread, and a zany idea. I like it. Approved. On the condition, however, that while a bet is in progress you keep the money you're holding in a Shirekeep account ... because Ayreon may be Kaiser for a while, and I'd hate to think of one Duchy holding a couple 100 extra erb for three months ... (once the things closed, you may of course take your fee from it and put that in Brookshire)

And if I may suggest another issue (though it'd be unfair for me to bet on it) - the Kildarian Civil War. Whether you want to take bets on outcome, or just who ends up with Old Hallucination or Gong Li.

[Jess]

I bet 50 that someone gets mad at me for doing the Snap thing.

[Erik Mortis]

I like this.. but... say.. I bet on myself.. wouldn't that kinda screw up the odds....since.. well.. it's me.. and the Kaiserhship.. and if I say I want it.. people might assume I get it. (I don't assume that, I know better)... But see my point? Also, people could manipulate their actions to help the outcomes of things.

[hypatias mom]

They do that in RL politics already. Why should Shireroth be any different?

[Prodigy Almighty]

I bet:

Jacobus (20 )

[hypatias mom]

But we only have one problem here. As long as Jacobus is still involved as a member or leader of Maraguo, he cannot qualify to become Shireroth's Kaiser. Perhaps the bet should be on whether he plans to take the chance again and drops his Maraguo citizenship for the duration of the contest,.

[Jonas]

But we only have one problem here. As long as Jacobus is still involved as a member or leader of Maraguo, he cannot qualify to become Shireroth's Kaiser. Perhaps the bet should be on whether he plans to take the chance again and drops his Maraguo citizenship for the duration of the contest,.

That isn't true. The Vryheer owns Maraguo, just like Hasan owned Babhka. And Maraguo doesn't have citizens but residents.

[Yvain Wintersong]

Okay, a little change to make this fairer. Anything you post here is going to be a promise only. You don't have to pay me until the new Kaiser is actually chosen (Baron Prodigy, if you already paid me, tell me and I'll pay you back). That way, you don't lose erb for two or three months.

Baron Jess, please tell me whether you're serious about the Snap deal. Keep in mind that if no one else bets on it, even if you win you'll only get your own money back minus my fee.

Baron Erik, to answer your question, if you put money on yourself and then secretly demanded to Kaiser Ayreon that he name you Kaiser, that would count as "insider information" and you'd be disqualified. If you put money on yourself but didn't make secret demands, then that might announce that you wanted the Kaisership, but that information would be available to everyone equally and it would still be fair (and if people did rush to place lots of money on you, that would correctly predict that you had a high chance of becoming Kaiser).

I accept Prodigy's bet, on the grounds that Prodigy can take his citizenship status into account when betting. And I place 10 erb on the Khan.

[Erik Mortis]

Well.. I do want the Kaiser ship.. but knowing that... I guess for my own sake I ought not bet.. since I proly will work to make it happen...

[Jacobus Loki]

Well.. I do want the Kaiser ship

And I certainly will not dispute Erik, if he really wants it.

Other things to mess up the odds-

As Jonas said, Maraguo has no citizens. The Vryholders are property owners, so by that precedant, not a problem.

I really do have that vacation coming up, and could not serve except as a figurehead until somewhere between Sept. 25th and Oct. 1st.

Next, I have been toying with trying to ressurect the FRC, but with little success, so that probably wouldn't be an issue.

Next, my charges at the Throne seem to be becoming similar to the regular burning of Musica.

[Hesam Jayatar]

Erik, you want to be Kaiser again?

[Jacobus Loki]

Or he could be trying to skew the betting.

5 erb on Hesam.

[Hesam Jayatar]

That's very true.

Thanks for the vote of confidence Jake.

[Erik Mortis]

I do. I still have a few things needing to get done. Though it might be a short reign.

[Hesam Jayatar]

Well, you'd have to be made heir wouldn't you?

[Erik Mortis]

I'll get around to that...

[Hesam Jayatar]

Wouldn't it be the Kaiser that would "get around to that"?

[b3n|<3r|\|]

I do. I still have a few things needing to get done. Though it might be a short reign.

Might I suggest a "Kaiser Lacrymosa III"?

[Erik Mortis]

I need to get around to talking to him about it...

and I have pondered a Lacymosa.

[hypatias mom]

I thought you were Kaiser just a short while ago. Your last reign lasted all of one post. A short time ago you said you'd like to be a commoner. And now you're saying you want the throne back again?

[b3n|<3r|\|]

I think he's been listening to people too much again.

[Erik Mortis]

No.. I'm just being the usual me.

[Hesam Jayatar]

you said it...

And if there is something that needs to be changed, why can it not be done now? Why do you have to "temporarily" take the throne to achieve it?

[Erik Mortis]

Because I don't inherently trust anyone to do what I intend to do properly? Because I like doing things myself? Because I like to be Kaiser now and again? Because I'd need to be Kaiser to implement what I have planned? Because.... Why not?

Pick one or all? Which ever ones you like.

[Hesam Jayatar]

I wouldn't say I see the light, but I see something.

[Erik Mortis]

A dim flicker?

[Hesam Jayatar]

Nah, it's not light related.

[Jacobus Loki]

Well, you could promote your agenda in the Landsraad, build popular support for it,............

Or the Gods could arise.....

P.S.
Yvain, I transferred my bet money. I may be broke this time next week.