Diplomacy Betting

[Scott of Hyperborea]

The Olde Syrelwynn Prophecy Exchange is taking bets on the outcome of the two Micronational Diplomacy games. You can place a bet in this thread of up to 150 erb. If the country you bet on loses, you owe me the value of the bet. If the country you bet on wins, I owe you the value of the bet times the odds, which are as follows for both games:

France - 1:4
England - 1:4
Germany - 1:4
Russia - 1:4
Italy - 1:6
Austria - 1:6
Turkey - 1:6

So, for example, you bet 100 erb that France will win Ari's game. If Germany wins Ari's game, you owe me 100 erb. If France wins, I owe you 400 erb. If you bet on Turkey and they win, I owe you 600 erb.

You may bet on yourself, and you may bet on any player in a game you're not participating in. Within these restrictions, you may place different bets on both games. You may not bet on rival players in your own game; that leaves too much opportunity for bad sportsmanship.

By placing a bet, you agree to the following condition, which is considered an Arbiter-enforceable oath under Chapter VII Section D of the Lawbook punishable by 1000 erb fine payable to me: You will not try to fix the game by bribing a player to lose, bribing a player to support other players, bribing a player to quit, bribing a moderator to cheat, et cetera.

Here, "winning" is defined as either getting 18 supply centers, or having the most supply centers when the game is stopped. If two countries have equal top numbers of supply centers when the game is stopped, then both countries are considered "winners" but pay off at only half the usual rate (ie if you bet 100 erb on France, and France and Turkey are tied for most centers when the game ends, you win only 200 erb instead of the normal 400). Anything like "joint victories" or "draws" or stuff, even if agreed to by the players of the game, is irrelevant for purposes of this bet.

If the game is called off before finishing, all bets are automatically invalidated and no one gains or loses money. If your player drops out of the game, you automatically lose your bet.

All bet winnings will be paid out of my personal account. If I lose all the money in my personal account before paying off all winning bets, then remaining winning bets will not be paid. In this case, winning bets will be paid off in the order of who posted them first. However, the odds in this game favor the house, so unless I get really unlucky I should be able to pay everyone out of revenues alone.

I will accept bets placed in currencies not linked to the erb, including Antican pecuniae, but all winnings will be paid in erb. If you are interested in betting with another currency, tell me and we can work out the exchange.

[Icebreaker]

PARDON ME SIR, BUT DOESN'T THIS PUT YOU IN A RATHER ENVIABLE POSITION?

WE ARE NOT ALLOWED TO BET ON RIVAL PLAYERS WITHIN OUR OWN GAME, WHICH IS FINE. BUT IF I WERE TO BET ON MYSELF, DOESN'T THAT MEAN YOU ARE ENTERING INTO A AGREEMENT WITH A RIVAL PLAYER OF YOUR OWN? YOU ARE THE ONE PAYING THE LOSSES AND WINNINGS, AFTER ALL, AND WITH YOUR KNOWLEDGE OF WHO'S BETTING ON WHOM, YOU HAVE EXTRA INFORMATION THAT NO ONE ELSE HAS ACCESS TO.

THE ONLY FAIR WAY TO HANDLE THIS, AFTER SOME HALF-HEARTED THINKING, IS TO OPEN BETTING ON ANY PARTICIPANT, AND TO REQUIRE ALL BETS TO BE MADE PUBLICLY.

[Scott of Hyperborea]

Fine. All bets are public, and unless someone protests people can bet on rival players in their own game - but are discouraged from doing so.

If someone else not in the game wants to cover betting for the game I'm in, that works too.

[Icebreaker]

AYE, I'D BE SATISFIED WITH AN ESCROW AGENT AS WELL.