Today's thesis is "No, you don't have a right to your own opinion." By that I mean that people shouldn't trust their own opinions, but should instead assume that the majority opinion is usually right. Here's my argument:
I personally have some opinions that I have trouble with. For example, I'm agnostic, but about 80% of the world's population is religious. Although there are some studies that show smart, well-educated people are more likely to be agnostics than the general population, there are still probably more smart religious people than smart agnostic people.Everyone else is just as smart as you are. That's probably false - many people here seem like well-educated, high-IQ individuals. So consider the subset of people who are at least as well-educated and at least as smart as you are. In that subset, everyone else is just as smart as you are. So, in a disagreement between you and one of those people, it's 50-50 who's right. In a disagreement between you and many of those people, the odds are pretty high that those many people are right.
You may argue, "But I've considered all of the evidence. I have lots of facts supporting my position!" Indeed you do. But so do your opponents. Since we're only allowing people at least as smart as you, your opponents probably know your arguments, and have arguments of their own that are just as good. In your mind, the facts support your side. In the minds of many more people, the facts support the other side. And since they're as smart as you are, their interpretation of the facts is just as likely to be correct. If there are more of them, then the facts must tend to support the other side.
Things get even worse when you're up against people who are professionals in a field. Have beliefs about how taxes should work? What about the banking system? Free markets? Do you agree with the majority of economists? No? Who do you think knows more about the economy - you or economists?
I also believe in the decriminalization or legalization of most soft drugs (hard drugs I'm not so sure about). I'm pretty sure most smart people disagree with me in this, so I'm considering abandoning the opinion. Do you think that's a good idea?
Do you have any opinions that most smart people would disagree with? Do you think you're justified?